EL HOMBRE KNOWS SPORTS

In one week, Uncle David Stern will saunter to the podium in New York and say, “You wascally wabbit!” All right, he won’t say that. He’ll announce the Chicago Bulls have used the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft on Derrick Rose, the Memphis point guard and Chi-town native. Thus will start the two-round process in which teams will try to upgrade their rosters with players who have “potential” and “upside” but precious few skills capable of helping anyone right away.

There has been plenty of hand-wringing about the influx of teenagers and other youngsters to the league, so this won’t be a rehashing of that issue, except to say that the college propagandists and cheerleaders who rage at the NBA for taking players right after their freshman years in college are largely disingenuous and care more about the coaches and the schools they serve than the players themselves. When these guys talk about how bad it is for the kids, they are really whining about how tough it is for millionaire bench jockeys to have annual success with fluctuating rosters and a parade of one-and-dones. Hey, guys, this is America, and 18-year olds are allowed to go to work. If that happens to be in the NBA, tough darts. How come these self-servers can’t be found complaining about the kid who leaves high school to become a plumber or construction worker? Why not agitate for them to get an education, too?

Okay, enough about that. The purpose of this week’s epistle is to shed a little light into the Draft, which is a much different animal than its NFL counterpart, and not just because there is no NBA equivalent of Mel Kiper, Jr., no matter how hard Chad Ford tries. Ford is a nice enough guy and hard worker, but he lacks Kiper’s style, and of course, hair. Plus he has a ridiculous affection for European players, whom we saw in the NBA Finals have the same level of toughness as European soccer stars, and they punctuate each fall to the turf with an operatic flourish that would have made Galli-Curci blush. El Hombre’s NBA Law: No team with a full-blooded Eurostarter can win an NBA title, unless it has Michael Jordan on the team. (Tony Parker is half American.) The Lakers may have looked great in the regular season with Pau Gasol’s mashed-potato sandwich of a game, but he played like a beanbag chair with a nasty playoff beard against Boston.

Anyway, the most interesting thing about the NBA Draft, particularly in contrast to its football counterpart, is the rampant exchanging of information that goes on between teams. In the NFL, teams Draft Boards are protected like mob informants. Few outside a team’s Politburo have access to its preferences and strategies, and no franchise would ever dream of divulging anything to a rival. Even the Patriots’ sophisticated surveillance methods are thwarted during the run-up to the April event. But the NBA? It’s like a roundball version of The View, with scouts and personnel types holding group workouts, swapping gossip on conference calls and generally trying to figure out who’s doing what before it happens. Contrast that with the NFL’s culture of obfuscation and outright lying, and it’s amazing there are any surprises, once Stern calls things to order every June.

For instance, one NBA type told El Hombre to call him back early next week, because he’ll have had time to talk with some of his peers and get a better idea of who was going to take whom. Another extended the same offer, although he was pretty certain of what was going down, at least in the first six picks. Unless Seattle is able to trade its pick – the fourth overall – which everyone knows is available, here’s how things will go:

1. Chicago: Derrick Rose, G, Memphis
2. Miami: Michael Beasley, F, Kansas State
3. Minnesota: O.J. Mayo, G, USC
4. Seattle: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford
5. Memphis: Kevin Love, F, UCLA
6. New York: Danilo Gallinari, F, Italy

The Gallinari situation is the most intriguing of the Draft, because he has made it clear through agent Arn Tellem that he will only play for the Knicks or Nets. If Milwaukee picks him, he’s heading back to the continent to whine about every elbow thrown his way and collect a few million a year. And the NBA is respecting that. No one will touch Gallinari for fear he will stay in Europe. We’re not talking about the top pick in the draft, either. Can you imagine if some D-tackle from State or Tech telling the NFL, “I’m playing in Houston, or I’m heading to the Arena League?” Hello, Grand Rapids. But Gallinari has that power, despite the evidence – Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Zydrunas Ilgauskas – that Europeans can’t help teams win championships.

There are some other interesting things to consider about this draft. For instance, if you’re wondering where West Virginia forward Joe Alexander might land, consider Milwaukee. It makes sense from a standpoint of where the Bucks are in the draft order and what they need, but did you know Alexander, described by one scout as “a freak” athletically, thanks to his rare combination of strength, speed and leaping ability, speaks fluent Mandarin? And whom did Milwaukee take last year with the sixth pick in the Draft? None other than Xi Jianlian from China. Hmmm, since the Chinese-American community in southern Wisconsin isn’t exactly burgeoning, it might not be a bad idea for the Bucks to draft someone who could hang with Xi on the road and discuss Mao’s Little Red Book. So, look for that.

If you’re wondering what’s going to happen with D.J. Augustin, the diminutive Texas point man, figure that he won’t get past Indiana at number 12. The Pacers are sick of Jamaal Tinsley’s inconsistency, not to mention his bad shot, so Augustin will be a Pacer, if he doesn’t go earlier. Speaking of point guards, the biggest mystery in the Draft is whether a trio of players can play the position. Because O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless and Russell Westbrook aren’t big enough to be a traditional NBA two, some teams are projecting them at the point spot – maybe. Mayo probably won’t make the switch, except on rare occasions. Westbrook will, although it will take some time. The problem with Bayless is that no matter how hard teams look at him, and no matter how much film they watch, even back to his high school days, they can’t figure it out. He’ll likely go high, perhaps to the Clippers at number seven, but it’s a crapshoot as to whether he’ll be a successful NBA point or an average two man.

One other thing to keep in mind, although this is more for the advanced players: when a team takes a chance on a player, hoping he’ll pan out down the line, check out the GM’s contract. Chances are, he has several years remaining on the deal and can wait for results. Those who choose players more ready to contribute immediately are likely to be in the final year or two of their deals and therefore need short-term results to prove their worth to antsy owners.

And remember that agents are swirling around the whole process, trying to get guarantees for their clients. One report has David Falk already with a promise from Utah that it will take Roy Hibbert of Georgetown at number 23. Stay tuned. Tellem isn’t just trying to secure Gallinari. He represents Brook and Robin Lopez, Westbrook, Augustin and others. He could end up controlling the whole thing.

Provided a gaggle of scouts doesn’t beat him to it.

EL HOMBRE SEZ: A suitable fuss was made over the tragic death of Tim Russert late last week, but don’t forget to honor Charlie Jones, who died last week. Jones was a voice of the AFL and covered 28 different sports during his career. He was a giant and had a great voice. He’ll be sorely missed…NBC announced Thursday it will be extending its contract to air Notre Dame football games through 2015, which is about how long it seems each broadcast lasts…Bashing Letsgoes GM Omar Minaya for firing Willie Randolph after midnight on the coast and away from the local media, not to mention after forcing Randolph to fly 3,000 miles first, is almost cliché by now. But Minaya had better watch his own back. He’s the one who put together this creaking, underachieving collection of hacks and problem children. A couple more months of this, and he might get fired. Let’s hope Mets owner Fred Wilpon does it by fax…Can we stop comparing Kobe Bryant to Michael Jordan now? There is no way MJ would have allowed his team to blow a 24-point Finals lead – at home, no less. No chance. Say what you want about the Celtics’ defense, but Bryant was hardly awe-inspiring…Pacman Jones is going to request publicly to be referred to as “Adam” from now on and hopes people will eschew the nickname. Of course, the man still paralyzed from gunshot wounds in Vegas after a Jones-incited melee has some other names he’d like to call the cornerback.